Freight Market & Costs • ELDT.LIVE
Freight Spending Jumps 32.1% as Shipment Growth Stays Near Flat
U.S. Bank's third-quarter freight index shows shipper spending rising far faster than shipment volume as diesel costs, tighter truck capacity, and stronger pricing reshape the market.
The newest freight index shows a widening cost gap
U.S. Bank released its third-quarter Freight Payment Index on October 29. National shipper spending increased 5.2% from the second quarter and 32.1% from a year earlier, the largest annual increase since 2021. Shipment volume moved much less: up 0.4% quarter over quarter and 0.5% year over year. The contrast means companies paid substantially more to move only slightly more freight; it does not mean shipment demand increased by 32.1%.
Shipment volume posted modest growth, not a freight boom
The third quarter was the first since 2021 in which the national shipment index increased both sequentially and from a year earlier, but both gains were below one percent. U.S. Bank described demand as uneven and largely unchanged. Drivers and carriers should therefore avoid reading the national spending surge as evidence that every lane, customer, trailer type, or region has entered a high-volume market.
Tighter capacity, rates, and fuel drove the increase
U.S. Bank attributes the higher spending to a combination of reduced available truck capacity, stronger carrier pricing, and diesel prices that exceeded $6 per gallon. The release notes that national diesel climbed above $6.50 per gallon during the quarter. Higher fuel surcharges can raise the amount a shipper pays even when a carrier's linehaul revenue or profit does not rise by the same percentage.
Every region recorded higher spending
Spending increased in all five U.S. Bank regions on both a quarterly and annual basis. Quarter-over-quarter increases ranged from 0.6% in the Midwest to 9.0% in the Southeast. Year over year, spending rose 25.3% in the Midwest, 25.4% in the Northeast, 31.1% in the West, 32.7% in the Southeast, and 51.6% in the Southwest. The broad increase shows that cost pressure was national even though freight volumes moved in different directions.
The Southwest shows why spend and volume must be separated
Southwest shipment volume increased 2.9% from the prior quarter but remained 2.6% below the third quarter of 2025. Spending nevertheless rose 8.6% sequentially and 51.6% year over year, the largest annual spending increase among the regions. U.S. Bank connected the gap to especially tight capacity, including a reduction in available drivers. For operators, that can create stronger pricing on some lanes while still leaving demand inconsistent.
The Southeast had the strongest quarterly shipment gain
The Southeast recorded a 4.7% quarterly increase in shipments and a 9.0% increase in spending, both the strongest sequential results in the regional table. Compared with a year earlier, shipment volume was unchanged while spending was 32.7% higher. That combination suggests a materially higher cost to move a similar amount of freight, but it does not reveal the rate or utilization of a particular carrier.
The West and Midwest lost volume during the quarter
Western shipment volume declined 3.1% quarter over quarter and 2.1% year over year, while spending still increased 5.2% and 31.1%, respectively. Midwest volume fell 2.5% from the second quarter but remained 2.4% above a year earlier; spending rose 0.6% sequentially and 25.3% annually. These mixed results reinforce the need to evaluate a fleet's own lanes instead of applying the national average to every market.
Higher shipper spending is not the same as higher carrier profit
A shipper's total freight outlay can include linehaul charges, fuel surcharges, accessorials, and changes in shipment mix. Carriers also face fuel, wages, insurance, maintenance, equipment, financing, tolls, and deadhead costs. A 32.1% increase in the spending index therefore cannot be treated as a 32.1% increase in carrier revenue or margin. Owner-operators should compare the all-in rate with the actual cost of completing the load.
Drivers may see tighter capacity before they see stronger pay
When fewer trucks compete for freight, carriers may gain pricing power and improve equipment utilization on selected lanes. Company-driver pay, however, depends on the employer's compensation plan, miles, load mix, detention policy, bonuses, and customer contracts. Trainees comparing job offers should ask how pay is calculated and how unpaid waiting, short-haul work, fuel policies, and home-time commitments affect realistic weekly earnings.
Owner-operators should separate linehaul from fuel recovery
Before accepting a load, calculate linehaul revenue, fuel surcharge, expected gallons, deadhead, tolls, maintenance reserve, trailer costs, and payment timing. A high all-in rate can still produce a weak margin if the fuel component merely reimburses an unusually expensive trip or if empty miles are high. Keep lane-level records so that a broad market index becomes a comparison point rather than a substitute for the truck's own cost-per-mile calculation.
The index has important limits
U.S. Bank says the index is based on actual transaction payment dates for domestic truckload and less-than-truckload freight processed through its Freight Payment platform. The data are seasonally and calendar adjusted. It is a substantial payment dataset, but it is not a count of every U.S. load, a real-time spot-rate board, a payroll report, or a forecast. Payment timing can also differ from the date a load physically moved.
What fleets and drivers should watch next
Monitor diesel prices, fuel-surcharge formulas, tender acceptance, load-to-truck balance, deadhead, contract renewals, and lane-level utilization through the fourth quarter. Shippers may respond to rising costs through network changes, consolidation, intermodal conversion, or stricter bid reviews. Carriers should protect service and safety standards while using their own operating data to decide where tighter capacity creates sustainable opportunity rather than temporary gross-revenue growth.
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Official sources
U.S. Bancorp — Q3 2026 Freight Payment Index Release ↗U.S. Bank — Payment Insights and Freight Index Resources ↗Reuters — U.S. Shipper Costs Hit Five-Year High ↗ELDT.live independently creates and reviews its content. We do not present practice questions as official examination questions and do not guarantee a licensing result.